Scandals, Trump’s Test, and a Bush Comeback: What to Watch in Tuesday’s Primaries.

Tuesday’s primaries across four states Maine, South Carolina, Nevada, and North Dakota are shaping up to be a real political drama. We’re about to find out how much baggage voters are willing to overlook, whether Donald Trump’s endorsement still matters in a crowded race, and who might face off in one of the most important governor’s races this fall.

Let’s start with the biggest headache: Maine’s Senate race.

The Graham Platner Problem

Democrat Graham Platner is expected to win his party’s nomination to take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins. But here’s the thing he’s been surrounded by controversy for months. First came reports of past online comments and a tattoo linked to Nazi imagery (which he’s since covered up). Then came sexually explicit messages to women who weren’t his wife, plus allegations of “unsettling” and even physically threatening behavior toward former partners. Platner denies the worst of it, calling the claims politically motivated.

Even so, Democratic Gov. Janet Mills who had been running against him suspended her campaign but keeps reminding voters her name is still on the ballot. If a surprising number of Democrats vote for Mills as a protest, that’s a big warning sign for Platner. Polls before the latest scandals showed a tight race with Collins. Now? All eyes are on whether Maine Dems hold their noses and stick with him.

Trump’s Scorecard in South Carolina

In the Palmetto State, the governor’s race is a test of Trump’s pull. He’s backing Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette over a field that includes Rep. Nancy Mace and Rep. Ralph Norman. But recent history is mixed: Trump’s Iowa pick lost, and his Georgia pick barely made a runoff. If Evette struggles to crack 50%, it might force a June 23 runoff and raise questions about his 2028 influence.

Oh, and Sen. Lindsey Graham is up for reelection too. Trump held a tele-rally for him Monday night. The question is whether Graham can avoid a runoff.

A Bush Returns

Jonathan Bush nephew of George H.W. Bush and cousin of George W. is running for Maine governor. Yes, that Bush. He’s one of eight Republicans trying to succeed the term limited Gov. Mills. In today’s Trump era GOP, the Bush name isn’t the asset it once was, but Jonathan is pitching himself as an outsider. Meanwhile, the Democratic primary is a five way race with familiar local names like Troy Jackson and Hannah Pingree.

Comeback Kid in Maine’s 2nd District

Rep. Jared Golden’s retirement opened up a House seat in a district Trump won by 10 points. Enter former Republican Gov. Paul LePage, trying to return to office. Democrats have a messy primary of their own. This fall, this race could be a bellwether for which party controls the House.

Nevada’s Gubernatorial Grudge Match

Gov. Joe Lombardo the only person to beat an incumbent governor anywhere in 2022 wants a second term. He’ll likely face Democrat Aaron Ford, the state attorney general, in what promises to be a slugfest. Also on the ballot: three competitive U.S. House seats and a familiar name Sharron Angle, the tea-party candidate who lost to Harry Reid back in 2010, is back running for secretary of state.

Bottom line: Tuesday isn’t just about who wins. It’s about how messy the wins are, who gets embarrassed, and which storylines carry all the way to November.